Download Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide by Mary A. Meyer PDF

By Mary A. Meyer

Specialist judgment is worthwhile for assessing items, platforms, and events for which measurements or try out effects are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and interpreting specialist Judgment: a realistic advisor takes the reader step-by-step in the course of the concepts of eliciting and reading professional judgment, with designated recognition given to aiding the reader strengthen elicitation equipment and instruments adaptable to quite a few specific occasions and paintings components. The research strategies awarded within the ebook might require a uncomplicated knowing of facts and percentages, however the authors have supplied precise factors of the ideas used and feature taken precise care to outline all statistical jargon. initially released in 1991, this booklet is designed in order that these accustomed to using specialist judgment can speedy locate the fabric acceptable for his or her complex historical past.

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Additional resources for Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide (ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability)

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Medical specialists frequently must interpret differing test results in arriving at a decision. • To learn an expert's problem-solving process or a group's decision-making processes. The experts often do not know how they solve a problem or reach a decision because their thoughts have become so automatic that the process is difficult to recall. However, their problem-solving techniques are needed to improve current practices, to train others, or to create systems that provide expert advice. One project that involved learning an expert's problem-solving processes focused on that expert's procedures for reaching a decision.

His or her previous response may be discarded as a response to a different question. 2. Is expert judgment valid data? Expert judgment can be considered data in the sense that it is information (cardinal, ordinal, categorical, and descriptive) separate from the theories or hypotheses of the researchers. The validity or quality of expert judgment, like any data, can vary. The quality of expert judgment depends on both the completeness of the expert's mental model of the phenomena in question and the process used to elicit, model, analyze, and interpret the data.

Because the quality of expert judgment is often evaluated in terms of the methods used to gather the judgments, the greater time and effort associated with the formal approach is an advantage. Second, the formal approach lends itself more readily to documentation than those methods used unconsciously or less formally. That is, records may be kept of which elicitation methods were used and of how the experts arrived at their final judgments. Such a record allows the formal method and its results to be scrutinized.

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