Download Cognitive Illusions: Intriguing Phenomena in Judgement, by Rüdiger F Pohl PDF

By Rüdiger F Pohl

Cognitive Illusions explores quite a lot of attention-grabbing mental results within the manner we expect, pass judgement on and take into account in our daily lives. that includes contributions from best researchers, the ebook defines what cognitive illusions are and discusses their theoretical prestige: are such illusions facts for a defective human information-processing process, or do they simply signify by-products of another way adaptive cognitive mechanisms? through the ebook, history to phenomena comparable to illusions of keep an eye on, overconfidence and hindsight bias are mentioned, prior to contemplating the respective empirical examine, power motives of the phenomenon, and correct utilized views. every one bankruptcy additionally positive aspects the specified description of an scan that may be used as lecture room demonstration.

Featuring six new chapters, this version has been completely up-to-date all through to mirror fresh study and alterations of concentration in the field.

This ebook might be of curiosity to scholars and researchers of cognitive illusions, in particular, these concentrating on considering, reasoning, decision-making and reminiscence.

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Extra resources for Cognitive Illusions: Intriguing Phenomena in Judgement, Thinking and Memory

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Consistent with this proposition, Tentori et al. found that the incidence of the fallacy was indeed higher where the likely event was also inductively confirmed relative to where this was not the case. 10. Random noise or sampling errors In sharp contrast to most of the existing research literature, Costello and Watts (2014) adopted a radically different perspective in which the fallacy is a by-product of an error-prone sampling process in an otherwise generally normative and rational process. In Costello and Watts’ conceptual framework, it is assumed that discrete episodes, potentially consisting of a number of specific events, are stored separately in memory.

Although initially arbitrary, the adjustment may be guided by cues. , Costello & Watts, 2014) that many participants simply select the neighbouring point on the response scale with respect to the particular fixation point in question. Importantly our own research has shown that the magnitude of the adjustment does not appear to be related to the other (non-fixated) component probability estimate. Interestingly and paradoxically, very recently, Costello (personal communication) has pointed out that our regression results (in which only the fixation point is statistically significant in predicting the joint event) are also consistent with normatively derived probabilities.

Marshall, D. , & Rogers, P. (under review). Probability judgements do not appear to be ‘surprisingly rational’ after all. Fisk, J. , & Pidgeon, N. (1996). Component probabilities and the conjunction fallacy: Resolving signed summation and the low component model in a contingent approach. Acta Psychologica, 94, 1–20. Fisk, J. , & Pidgeon, N. (1997). The conjunction fallacy: The case for the existence of competing heuristic strategies. British Journal of Psychology, 88, 1–27. Fisk, J. , & Pidgeon, N.

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