Download Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten PDF

By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson

Uncertainty research is a key element of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised by means of the authors during this quantity, and the function that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. insurance contains: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock ways, compliance and verification matters, and the function of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.

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Extra resources for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading

Sample text

These changes can affect the definition of what types of sources and sinks are included in the emissions estimate. 4 activities. 12 Our goal is to provide a level of confidence that our emission reductions have actually been achieved. Given that goal, we can ask what adjustment should be made to the nominal emissions inventory for the commitment period in order to compensate for the uncertainty of emission reductions. Suppose that emissions in a commitment year must be 7% below emissions in the base year for compliance (a number that translates into a target absolute quantity of emission reductions).

Adding differentiation to these dependent sources will not reduce the overall relative uncertainty, as they share an identical emission factor. 3 Significance of Subjective Interpretation of Uncertainty this does not affect the overall emissions balance, such a difference may influence the interpretation of country intercomparisons and the relative weighing of abatement measures. Again, this difference results from a subjective interpretation of the guidelines. National data have been collected and used to calculate the N2O from soil emissions at the level of the 15 “old” member countries of the European Union (Boeckx and van Cleemput 2001) based on default emission factors from the IPCC guidelines.

Using the identical emission factors for two different years may not always provide the best available figures for emission assessment – or, in other words, it may not always bring the uncertainty in the emissions level to the lowest level possible. Nevertheless, the procedure ensures that the correlation of emission factors can be fully considered for trend uncertainty calculation, and this will remove an important part of the uncertainty, allowing trend uncertainty to be smaller than level uncertainty.

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